Introduction

• Exploring the factors that go into causing batted passes
  • Batted pass: defender hits the ball down shortly after QB releases it
  • Typically results in incomplete pass, no yards gained
• Initial characters
  • QB height
  • Offensive formation
  • Defense formation
  • Pass type
  • Overall related more to defense or offense

Data

• Data from nflreadr
  • Play by play data 2016 through 2023
  • Player info - QB height
  • Did not have information on which passes were batted
• For The Numbers (FTN)
  • Included tipped and batted passes from 2019 - 2023 seasons
  • Detailed formation information from 2022 and 2023 seasons

Methods

• Focused on explaining variance, not predicting batted passes
• Multilevel Logistic Model \[ \log\left[\frac{\Pr(\text{Batted Pass})}{\Pr(\text{Not Batted})}\right] = \beta_0 + Q_{q[i]} + D_{d[i]} + \beta X \] \[ Q_q \sim Normal(0, \tau^2_Q) \] \[ D_d \sim Normal(0, \tau^2_D) \]
  • Multilevel model deals with randomness and dependence of data
  • Logistic model accounts for binary outcome
  • Random effects - quarterback, defensive team
  • Fixed effects - QB height, pass location, number of players in backfield, pass rushers

EDA

Height did not appear to have an impact on batted passes

Model Coefficient Plot

• The most consistent model variables are Number of Pass Rushers and Middle Passes

• QB Height has an impact in the 2023 model but not 2022

Defensive Coefficients

The Chiefs defense is an outlier both years, batting down passes at an elite rate

So… Does Size Really Matter?

Bryce Young appears to be the best quarterback in the league at avoiding batted passes

Discussion

Overall defensive characteristics determine more of the variance of batted passes