Developing the Theory and Practice of Epidemiological Forecasting
Epidemiological forecasting is critically needed for decision-making by public health officials, commercial and non-commercial institutions, and the general public. The DELPHI group focuses on developing the technological capability of epi-forecasting, and its role in decision making, both public and private.
Our long term vision is to make epidemiological forecasting as universally accepted and useful as weather forecasting is today. As was the case with weather forecasting, this will likely take several decades. In the shorter term, we select high value epidemiological forecasting targets (currently Influenza and Dengue); create baseline forecasting methods for them; establish metrics for measuring and tracking forecasting accuracy; estimate the limits of forecastability for each target; and identify new sources of data that could be helpful to the forecasting goal.